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The Search for Certainty

by Burdzy Krzysztof

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Probability’s foundations reconsidered

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AlbakiReads Editorial

Probability’s foundations reconsidered

Krzysztof Burdzy’s book examines how probability is understood, distinguishing statistical practices from the philosophical positions often associated with them. It presents a proposed set of scientific laws of probability and argues that frequency statistics need not rest on frequency philosophy, just as Bayesian statistics need not rely on subjective philosophy. Alongside its critiques of those two philosophical approaches, the volume surveys other theories of probability and introduces basic mathematical methods in probability and statistics. Its scope also includes substantial discussions of decision theory and the teaching of probability, connecting foundational questions with practical and educational topics.

Good fit for readers who enjoy

  • Readers interested in philosophical debates about probability and statistics
  • Those seeking an introduction to probability’s mathematical foundations and related decision theory
  • Teachers or students interested in how probability is taught

Themes

Foundations and philosophies of probabilityFrequency and Bayesian statisticsProbability laws and mathematical methodsDecision theoryTeaching probability

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Book overview

This volume represents a radical departure from the current philosophical duopoly in the area of foundations of probability, that is, the frequency and subjective theories. One of the main new ideas is a set of scientific laws of probability. The new laws are simple, intuitive and, last but not least, they agree well with the contents of current textbooks on probability. Another major new claim is that the "frequency statistics" has nothing in common with the "frequency philosophy of probability," contrary to popular belief. Similarly, contrary to the general perception, the "Bayesian statistics" shares nothing in common with the "subjective philosophy of probability."The book is non-partisan on the scientific side -- it is supportive of both frequency statistics and Bayesian statistics. On the other hand, it contains well-documented and thoroughly-explained criticisms of the frequency and subjective philosophies of probability. Short reviews of other philosophical theories of probability and basic mathematical methods of probability and statistics are incorporated. The book includes substantial chapters on decision theory and teaching probability, and it is easily accessible to the general audience.
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