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Interrupted Time Series Analysis

by David McDowall

A practical framework for causal questions in time-series data

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Paperback New English

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AlbakiReads Editorial

A practical framework for causal questions in time-series data

David McDowall presents interrupted time series analysis as a toolkit for assessing the effects of interventions or events through sequential data. The book builds its approach around ARIMA impact models, using completed examples from social, behavioral, and biomedical research to show how model choices shape an analysis. Alongside the Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building framework, it covers tests related to transformation, differencing, and model selection. Later material addresses Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, while graphical illustrations help make the examples legible. Its interdisciplinary scope connects statistical modeling with applied research questions where observations unfold over time.

Good fit for readers who enjoy

  • Researchers working with social, behavioral, or biomedical time-series data
  • Students and workshop participants with regression experience who need grounding in time-series processes
  • Practitioners seeking worked ARIMA impact-model analyses

Themes

Interrupted time seriesCausal inferenceARIMA modelsModel selectionBayesian hypothesis testing

Based on publisher information and book metadata.

Book overview

Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. It provides example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series to illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. Additionally, the book supplements the classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. Not only does the text discuss new developments, including the prospects for widespread adoption of Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, but it makes optimal use of graphical illustrations in its examples. With forty completed example analyses that demonstrate the implications of model properties, Interrupted Time Series Analysis will be a key inter-disciplinary text in classrooms, workshops, and short-courses for researchers familiar with time series data or cross-sectional regression analysis but limited background in the structure of time series processes and experiments.
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